10 Most At Risk Cities in U.S. for Wildfire

We’re not even two weeks into January, and the U.S. has already suffered more than 568 wildfire incidents and more than 29,000 acres burned this year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. The Los Angeles fires have been especially terrifying, with iconic neighborhoods left to ruin.

What other cities face serious fire risk? We map things out below.

Wildfire risk factors

Many major U.S. cities face significant wildfire risk because of urban sprawl. In the last few decades, population growth has led cities to expand development into regions prone to wildfire. 

Other factors that affect wildfire risk include:

• Higher density of homes in areas at risk of wildfire
• Proximity of homes to undeveloped wildland (this Wildland-Urban Interface is more vulnerable to wildfire)
• Geography, such as:
  • Southern slopes that tend to be drier, leading to more intense fires
  • Steeper slopes that create faster-moving fires and challenges with fire management
  • Fuel – type and density of vegetation affect wildfire spread
• Fire history – areas where wildfires occur often present long-term risk
• The effects of climate change.

Because of climate change, many cities in the U.S. face a higher risk of wildfire and more severe impacts of wildfires. This is largely due to drier conditions and stronger winds. The fire season is also longer, with hotter average temperatures.

Other risks for wildfires include reduced biodiversity, with mono-crop tree planting, disease, and dead trees creating a ladder effect where fires reach the canopy fast and spread quickly. Such conditions are incredibly difficult for firefighters to tackle, with burning, falling branches impeding efforts at containment. 

Calculating Risk

In 2024, wildfires affected all states except for Delaware. Significantly more acreage burned in California than anywhere else, with Oregon and Montana in second and third place.

There are various ways to determine cities’ wildfire risk. Some statisticians rank cities by Reconstruction Cost Value for properties at high risk. Others, such as FEMA, look at expected building loss and loss of life relative to other cities. FEMA provides a National Risk Index (NRI), including a Wildfire Risk Index score each year. Among other hazards, it also offers risk data for:

• Avalanche
• Coastal Flooding
• Earthquake
• Hurricane
• Ice Storm
• Landslide
• Tornado
• Tsunami
• Volcanic Activity
• Winter Weather.

10 Places Most at Risk of Wildfire

The current NRI gives information down to the county level. As of January 11th, 2025, there are 485 counties in the U.S. with a ‘Very High’ rating for wildfire risk. The top 10 counties with areas most at risk are as follows:

1. San Diego, CA
2. Riverside, CA
3. Orange, CA
4. San Bernardino, CA
5. Idaho, ID
6. Ventura, CA
7. Madera, CA
8. Los Angeles, CA
9. Coconino, AZ
10. Elmore, ID

A closer look at the data suggests that several cities are surrounded by areas with high risk of wildfire. Unsurprisingly, Riverside and LA are two such areas.

San Diego Wildfire Risks

Several areas very close to San Diego are also at very high risk.

If I lived in Poway, Ramona, Lakeside, or Barona, I’d also be thinking about emergency preparedness for wildfires. These San Diego neighborhoods are inland and far enough away from the coast that they no longer benefit from the moisture of the marine layer.

Escondido, Oceanside, and Temecula are also very high risk spots for wildfires.

Other Wildfire Risk Regions in the U.S.

Perhaps more surprising than the hot spots in California, though, are the other places in the U.S. with a very high risk of wildfires. These include Arizona and Idaho, as well as Alaska and even Florida.

Arizona and Idaho Wildfire Risks

In Arizona, residents of Flagstaff live beside one of the highest risk places in the U.S., as do folks in nearby Prescott and Scottsdale.

In Idaho, Boise, Nampa, and Butte are also risky places to live from a wildfire perspective. 

Missoula and Lewiston residents live near a hot spot for wildfire risk.

From Alaska to Florida

Expand the FEMA list to 15 and we see that it’s not just California, Arizona, and Idaho at very high risk of wildfires.

In addition to these western states and cities, Florida also faces a growing risk of wildfire. This is due to rising temperatures and increasingly dry conditions even in areas that have a long history of being more humid and wet. 

Where is most at risk of wildfires in Florida? 

Okeechobee County in Florida has a risk score almost the same as some spots in San Diego.

Kenai Peninsula in Alaska isn’t far behind.

The Cost of Wildfires

Wildfires are costly, both in lives lost, resources used for wildfire control, and in rebuild costs for buildings and land destroyed. For the top 10 counties, FEMA estimates the following costs of existing buildings:

As we’ve seen over the last week or so, Los Angeles has a large number of at-risk homes, many of which are very expensive. Thousands of these have burned already, and many more remain at risk.

Overall, California, Texas, and Colorado have the most homes in the high- and extreme-risk categories because they’re large states with big populations in proximity to a lot of wildfire fuel and with terrain that raises the risk of fires.

Final thoughts

If you live in an area at risk of wildfires, have a plan for what to do in an emergency.

Reduce wildfire risks to your home and property by removing items that can fuel a fire. That also means keeping vegetation away from your home.

Prepare your emergency kit with:

• 3-days of non-perishable food
• 3 gallons of water per person
• Face masks for smoke
• Medications
• First aid kit.

Keep these items up to date with an annual check.

Plan your exit route and get to know your community’s emergency plan. Make sure you have two ways out of every room in your home and ensure more vulnerable family members can escape too.

Things you might not know to do but that are a good idea in a wildfire situation include:

• Leaving lights on, so your house is visible through smoke
• Shutting off utilities, including gas, A/C, and propane tanks
• Leaving doors and windows unlocked, to help firefighters.

Hopefully, you’ll never need these tips, but if you live in one of the U.S. cities at risk of wildfires, it’s best to be prepared.